A growing economy means more for everybody – more money with which to buy more stuff. More jobs for people making the increased amount of stuff richer people are buying. And, that increases the demand for even more stuff. It’s simple economic theory and everybody agrees that a growing economy is a good thing. Well, not quite everybody.
Growing Appeal of Ecological Footprint Analysis
There’s a small but growing group of economists that uses what’s called “Ecological Footprint Analysis” (EFA) to measure how well an economy is doing. This technique was developed in the early 1990s by Professor William Rees at the University of British Columbia and Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Executive Director of the Global Footprint Network.
The EFA people measure the consumption of resources – energy, trees, fish, minerals, etc. – needed to sustain a particular standard of living. Through some mathematical wizardry they then translate that consumption into its equivalent in land area. The non-governmental organization Redefining Progress has does the arithmetic:
- The average Canadian, and by extension most people in the Western industrialized world, requires a little more than one hectare of crop and grazing land to produce her or his food for a year;
- Slightly more than half a hectare is needed to provide an annual supply of wood and paper;
- Living space takes up about a quarter of a hectare each; and,
- Two-point-three hectares of forest are needed to absorb each Canadian’s annual output of carbon dioxide.
Add it all up and each Canadian needs 8.56 hectares of land to sustain their current lifestyle. That’s the equivalent of 11.6 full-sized soccer fields.
Over-consumption of Western Economies Leads to Resource Depletion
For everybody in the world to enjoy a Canadian standard of living almost 55 billion hectares are needed. But, there’s only 15 billion hectares of land on the planet, and a third of that is either bare rock, ice-covered, or very unpleasant desert.
So, there’s only enough usable land to give each person 1.56 hectares, if it’s shared equally. According to United Nations population experts, in 2050, there will be a third more people on the planet. That means each person’s equal share of land will be a tad over one hectare.
But, humans are not the only occupants of the planet, and space needs to be set aside for the 15 million or so other species.
And, as Mark Twain wisely pointed out many years ago: “The problem with land is that they stopped making it some time ago.”
What to do?
Increasing Gross Domestic Product Will Make the Problem Worse
The world community faces some choices, many of them very difficult to make:
- Strive for more huge improvements in food and manufacturing efficiency;
- Do nothing and destroy the environment that supports society;
- Hope for inter-galactic travel to enable humans to colonize the four new Earth-sized planets that will be needed by mid century;
- Learn to live in an economy that does not grow bigger and in which individuals plant a much smaller ecological footprint; or,
- Undertake a monumental effort to turn population growth into population decline.
One way or the other the ecological footprint of each individual will become smaller; it can be done voluntarily or it will be forced upon the species. As the world recovers from the recession, policy makers will need to consider the downside of unrestrained growth.
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