Clean Energy and The TerraWatt Challenge
Green Electricity to Meet 5 Decade Population Growth
Sep 28, 2009
In the next several decades, world population is expected to increase dramatically. According to a Hoffert et.al. article in the October 1998 issue of Nature titled, "Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content," world population will increase to about 10 billion by 2050.
This population increase along with the continuing industrialization of countries like India and China poses a major conflict between energy production and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. In order to maintain carbon dioxide concentration at just two times the pre-industrialized level, several major challenges must be overcome.
Global Warming and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
While some scientists argue the underlying causes need further evaluation, there is general agreement that the Earth is warming. The Greenhouse Effect, which maintains temperatures on Earth in a life-supporting range, is exacerbated by increased concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses (GHGs).
Sterman and Sweeney's article, "Cloudy skies: assessing public understanding of global warming," published in System Dynamics Review's Summer 2002 volume, carbon dioxide levels are higher now than they have been in the last 420,000 years. Worse, anthropogenic (human) carbon dioxide emissions are now roughly double the planetary removal rate.
To reduce GHG concentration and prevent further global warming problems, anthropogenic emissions need to be lower than the removal rate. The current fossil fuel based energy economy and population growth are at odds with the goal of decreasing or at least maintaining current carbon dioxide levels.
Clean and Cheap Electricity Supports Population Growth
New electrical generation is necessary to meet energy demands of an ever increasing population without accelerating global warming Hoffert predicts an estimated 10-30 TerraWatts of new, cheap, carbon-neutral electricity will be needed by 2050 to achieve this goal.
The 10 TW figure makes explaining the scope of the energy problem a bit easier. Producing 10 TW of new electricity by 2050 means that a 1 GW electric plant would have to come on line almost every two days until 10,000are built. A 1 GW plant is large, even for a modern coal fired facility.
Since this new energy needs to be clean, coal is not the best option, unless carbon sequestration technology takes a major leap. Meeting the 10 TW goal is challenging even with current technology:
- Photovoltaic solar panels are one option. At current efficiencies of around 20%, approximately 240,000 square kilometers of solar panels would be needed. This area is roughly equal to the size of Minnesota and represents more PV panels than have been produced to date.
- Wind turbines are another choice. However, over 10 million 5 MW turbines would have to be installed.
While these represent the best current clean technologies for electricity production, the numbers indicate projects that may be beyond current human potential. In order to meet the staggering energy demands of growing world population cheaply, researchers need to invent or re-invent clean technology.
While the challenge is not insurmountable, it is intimidating. Hoffert predicts concerted international efforts on the level of Apollo or the Manhattan project will be needed. International governmental cooperation supporting economic development of new resources and knowledge sharing will be necessary, but the goal is not impossible.
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